机动车-行人事故中行人伤害严重程度分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2020.11.021

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (11): 141-147.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2020.11.021

机动车-行人事故中行人伤害严重程度分析

董傲然¹, 王长帅², 秦丹¹, 朱彤¹ 副教授, 徐婷¹ 教授

1 长安大学运输工程学院,陕西西安 710064;
2 东南大学交通学院,江苏南京 210096

收稿日期:2020-08-02 修回日期:2020-10-13 出版日期:2020-11-28 发布日期:2021-07-15
作者简介:董傲然 (1998—),男,江苏连云港人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为交通安全。E-mail:15291868807@163.com。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划(2019YFE0108000, 2018YFC0807500);国家自然科学基金资助(51878066)。

Analysis on injury severity of pedestrian in motor vehicle-pedestrian accidents

DONG Aoran¹, WANG Changshuai², QIN Dan¹, ZHU Tong¹, XU Ting¹

1 College of Transportation Engineering, Chang'an University, Xi'an Shaanxi 710064, China;
2 School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing Jiangsu 210096, China

Received:2020-08-02 Revised:2020-10-13 Online:2020-11-28 Published:2021-07-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为探究影响机动车-行人碰撞事故中行人伤害严重程度的因素,以某市的6 101起机动车-行人交通事故为研究对象,从人、车辆、道路和环境4个方面选择19个变量,采用部分优势比模型建立行人伤害严重程度分析模型,通过弹性分析法定量分析各显著变量对行人受伤情况的影响程度。结果表明:驾驶员性别与年龄、行人性别与年龄、车辆类型、路面结构、道路类型、事故发生时间、交通信号控制、能见度、照明情况以及地形等12个变量会显著影响机动车-行人碰撞事故中行人的伤害严重程度。其中,驾驶员性别与年龄等变量满足比例优势假设,而路面结构等变量不满足比例优势假设。

关键词: 机动车-行人碰撞事故, 伤害严重程度, 部分优势比模型, 弹性分析, 因变量, 自变量

Abstract: In order to explore factors affecting pedestrian's injury severity in motor vehicle-pedestrian crashes, 6 101 cases of such crash accidents in a city were investigated. 19 variables were selected from four aspects, including human, vehicles, roads and environmental conditions, and a pedestrian injury severity analysis model was established by using partial proportion odds model. Then, influence of significant variables on injury severity was analyzed quantitatively through elasticity analysis. The results show that 12 variables have a significant impact on pedestrian's injury severity in these crashes, including drivers' gender and age, pedestrian's gender and age, vehicle types, pavement structure, road types, time of accident, whether there is a traffic signal control, visibility, lighting conditions and terrain. Among them, variables like drivers' gender and age meet the proportional odds assumption, while those like pavement structure do not.

Key words: motor vehicle-pedestrian crashes, injury severity, partial proportion odds model, elasticity analysis, dependent variable, independent variable

中图分类号:

X928.9

董傲然, 王长帅, 秦丹, 朱彤, 徐婷. 机动车-行人事故中行人伤害严重程度分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(11): 141-147.

DONG Aoran, WANG Changshuai, QIN Dan, ZHU Tong, XU Ting. Analysis on injury severity of pedestrian in motor vehicle-pedestrian accidents[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2020, 30(11): 141-147.

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机动车-行人事故中行人伤害严重程度分析

Analysis on injury severity of pedestrian in motor vehicle-pedestrian accidents

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